Forecast: Disney+ will overtake Netflix in 2028
February 22, 2022
Global SVoD subscriptions will increase by 550 million between 2021 and 2027 to reach 1.75 billion, according to the SVOD Forecasts Update report from analyst firm Digital TV Research. China and the US will together account for 48 per cent of the world’s total by 2027.
“China and the US had a similar number of gross subscriptions by end-2021,” notes Simon Murray, Principal Analyst at Digital TV Research. “Due to government pressure, China’s growth is decelerating, with 374 million subscriptions by 2027. The US will continue to grow, with 456 million subscriptions expected by 2027.”
Three US-based platforms will control half the world’s SVoD subscriptions by 2027. Despite its maturity, Netflix will add 60 million subscribers between 2021 and 2027.
Disney+ will overtake Netflix in subscription terms in 2028. Disney+ will add 146 million subscribers between 2021 and 2027 to take its total to 276 million. About 106 million of Disney+’s subscribers will be in the 13 Asian countries under the Hotstar brand in 2027.
HBO Max will add 65 million subscribers to total 90 million in 2027. Paramount+ [including SkyShowtime] will increase by 55 million subscribers to reach 88 million by 2027.